31590630100%14.9314.93%35%122.91%50%50%[][][][]VaRVaR11A2VaR3VaRARIMAGARCHVaR46122QQ44.7%39.6%38%32.2%30.8%42.8%1.950%4.9%6.74%10%QQ[]10%[][][][][][][]